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S&P500 Technical Analysis

Please look at all charts, monthly, weekly and daily before making your own conclusion. You can find HERE a description of the chart template used.

Daily Chart

05/12/2012

The NEW chart template (April 7 2012) and trading rules are mentioned HERE.

Last week I wrote: "Because the stop loss just above the top 3.4 was not reached, we still have the short position open. Last Thursday the index fell again under the 8 day exponential average ready to continue the move down. All indicators are moving down and we have a confirmed wave 3 down, (more on my new 123 wave count system HERE). My expert system SVEPRExp turned red. The first target now is the 100 day average around 1340".

Reaching a low of 1343, we came very close to our mentioned target of 1340 the previous week. We have a new valid wave 3.1 down (more  on my new 123 wave count system HERE). All indicators are moving down. There is support from the 100 day moving average and from the previous low of a wave 2. For next week there may be some up correction, but the trend is down! My swing trading system is in a down move (more info about my STS8 Swing Trading System HERE)

The total closed profit trading the index is 76.5% from the start in March 2009.

We have a valid 123-wave, wave 3 down. We have to consider that it is not impossible that we started a long term down move.

My SVEPRExp expert system turned black, we have an open short position. Since not all conditions to close this short trade the previous week, the short position is still open and now confirmed by the expert system (more about the expert system SVEPRExp HERE and HERE!

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Pitchfork:
Reaching the median line of the downward pitchfork.

Fibonacci:
Downward target at 1317.

Trailing noise:
Moving down.

Support/Resistance:
There is support at 1335-1280-1200-1160. There is resistance at 1390-1440.

Indicators:
Indicators are moving down.

Fast Stochastic RSI indicator:
Moving down.

Slow Stochastic:
Moving down.

SVE_BBS%b Band Break System %b indicator:
Moving down.

RSI(28) and Average(8):
Moving down below the average.

Fast PCRI (Put/Call Ratio Indicator):
Will be added later.

Slow PCRI:
Will be added later.

SVEPRExp Expert:
The SVEPRExp expert is black, I have an open short position, STS8 rules to close that position are not met. History of all trades is shown at the bottom of this page.

Hourly Chart:

Trading Result

Automatic Trading
Pos.	Open Date	Close Date	Opn Pr.	Close pr.	total	Percent
Long	03/13/2009	10/02/2009	756.5	1025.20	268.7	35.0%
Long	10/09/2009	10/28/2009	1071.49	1042.19	-29.3	-2.7%
Long	11/10/2009	01/22/2010	1093	1092	-1	-0.11%
Long	03/02/2010	04/28/2010	1118.3	1191.3	72	6.5%
Long	06/14/2010	06/24/2010	1089.7	1073.7	-16	-1.5%
Long	07/08/2010	08/11/2010	1070.2	1089.4	-19.2	-1.8%
Short	08/11/2010	09/03/2010	1089.5	1104.5	-15	-1.3%
Long	09/03/2010	11/16/2010	1104.5	1178.3	73.8	6.7%
Long	12/02/2010	02/22/2011	1221.5	1315.4	93.9	7.7%
Long	03/29/2011	04/18/2011	1319.4	1305.1	-14.3	-1.0%
Long	04/26/2011	05/05/2011	1347.2	1335.1	-12.1	-0.9%
Short	06/08/2011	06/30/2011	1270.9	1320.6	-49.7	-3.9%
Long	06/30/2011	07/12/2011	1320.6	1313.6	-7	-0.5%
Short	07/29/2011	08/09/2011	1292.2	1110	182.2	14%
Short	09/22/2011	10/10/2011	1L129.5	1194.89	-65.4	-5.9%
Long	10/10/2011	11/17/2011	1194.89	1216.13	21.24	1.8%
Short	11/17/2011	11/28/2011	1216.13	1192.0	24.13	2.0%
Long	12/02/2011	01/27/2012	1244.28	1316.33	72.05	5.8%
Short	04/13/2012	OPEN	1371.0
				PROFIT	578.98	76.5%

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