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S&P500 Analysis: -Daily -Weekly -Monthly -Template -Formulas -Real-Time - HOME

S&P500 Technical Analysis

Please look at all charts, monthly, weekly and daily before making your own conclusion. You can find HERE a description of the chart template used.

Daily Chart


Last week I wrote: "In my last week comment I wrote: "Now we see a divergent move with lower tops in the index and higher tops in the Stochastic RSI. This points in the direction of a further down move below the previous low. The second zigzag down target for the coming couple of weeks is around 2300. This is the size of the first zigzag down from the top of the past week (the red arrow line down) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up." The further down move is confirmed, now reaching a low of 2328.95. The index reaches support from the previous low price, the S1 pivot support of the month and the 50% retrace level over the last up wave. Meaning we should expect some pullback. This will create the second smaller leg of the larger double zigzag down. The target remains as mentioned last week 2300. I assume it will take two more weeks to get there. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view. "

It looks like we are completing a convergent move with lower index tops and a lower Stochastic RSI top. This means that the pullback of the past week is rather a correction and that the down move will continue now. The index reached the resistance of the PP pivot level of the month, the 50-day moving average resistance and previous price support and resistance. Ready to turn down continuing the down move. The first target remains as mentioned already a couple of weeks ago 2300. This is below the last low with the size of the first leg down from the top (red arrow), the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace, the low side of the volatility band and the 100-day moving average. Please read my comments on the weekly chart and monthly chart  for more information regarding the longer term view.


S&P500 daily chart

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Trading Result using a simulated account.
Automatic Trading        
Pos. Open Date Close Date Opn Pr. Close pr. total Percent
Long 03/13/2009 10/02/2009 756.5 1025.20 268.7 35.0%
Long 10/09/2009 10/28/2009 1071.49 1042.19 -29.3 -2.7%
Long 11/10/2009 01/22/2010 1093 1092 -1 -0.11%
Long 03/02/2010 04/28/2010 1118.3 1191.3 72 6.5%
Long 06/14/2010 06/24/2010 1089.7 1073.7 -16 -1.5%
Long 07/08/2010 08/11/2010 1070.2 1089.4 -19.2 -1.8%
Short 08/11/2010 09/03/2010 1089.5 1104.5 -15 -1.3%
Long 09/03/2010 11/16/2010 1104.5 1178.3 73.8 6.7%
Long 12/02/2010 02/22/2011 1221.5 1315.4 93.9 7.7%
Long 03/29/2011 04/18/2011 1319.4 1305.1 -14.3 -1.0%
Long 04/26/2011 05/05/2011 1347.2 1335.1 -12.1 -0.9%
Short 06/08/2011 06/30/2011 1270.9 1320.6 -49.7 -3.9%
Long 06/30/2011 07/12/2011 1320.6 1313.6 -7 -0.5%
Short 07/29/2011 08/09/2011 1292.2 1110 182.2 14%
Short 09/22/2011 10/10/2011 1L129.5 1194.89 -65.4 -5.9%
Long 10/10/2011 11/17/2011 1194.89 1216.13 21.24 1.8%
Short 11/17/2011 11/28/2011 1216.13 1192.0 24.13 2.0%
Long 12/02/2011 01/27/2012 1244.28 1316.33 72.05 5.8%
Short 04/13/2012 06/06/2012 1371.0 1298.2 72.8 5.3%
Long 06/06/2012 06/20/2012 1303.2 1358.0 54.8 4.2%
Short 06/22/2012 06/27/2012 1335.0 1331.8 3.2 0.02%
Long 06/27/2012 07/19/2012 1331.8 1368.4 36.6 2.7%
Long 08/02/2012 08/21/2012 1361.1 1425.15 64.05 4.7%
Short 09/25/2012 10/04/2012 1441.6 1451.1 -9.5 -0.6%
Short 10/19/2012 11/16/2012 1451.6 1344.9 106.7 7.3%
Short 12/26/2012 01/02/2013 1426.6 1426.2 0.4 0%
Long 01/02/2013 02/13/2013 1426.3 1519.1 92.8 6.5%
Short 04/05/2013   1559.8      
Call 01/02/2013 02/01/2014 26 52 26 2.9%
        PROFIT 996.43 131.7%

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Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.

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