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S&P500 Technical Analysis

Please look at all charts, monthly, weekly and daily before making your own conclusion. You can find HERE a description of the chart template used.

Daily Chart

07/24/2010

After a short term correction the previous week the index continued the up move.

Price broke out of the downward pitchfork and Friday the closing price broke the downtrend line. Short term we can expect resistance from the 200 and 100-days moving average and the 50% retracement level.

I think this will at least slow down the up move. There is however still some room in the indicators for a further up move. I expect a higher index the following days.

Both the manual and the SATS2 automatic long trades are open.

I am using a slightly faster SATS2 now on the daily chart. I am also working on a new SATS5 system expert. First results look good with higher and more reliable profit rates than SATS2. If all is ready we will be using this expert in the future. SATS5 works fine even in very small time frames like 1 minute on the Emini future and Forex EUR/USD. More later on...

For FOREX traders, here I keep FOREX EUR/USD updated charts.

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Elliott wave count:
Looking at the Elliott count, we may be finishing correction wave [2], now followed by a long term wave [3] up. This looks like a very optimistic long term view, most probably to good to be true! Another possibility is that the index finished a medium term correction wave (A) down and we expect next the medium term correction wave (B) up. Next followed by the wave (C) down, with an index remaining between 950-900 for the construction of the correction wave [2] at a lower point. However, since a single impulse wave ({1} to {5}) is normally not the end of a correction wave, there is a third possibility: we completed a long term correction wave [B] up and the index started are long term down move for correction wave [C]. This would be the worst case scenario with an index target below 650.

Pitchfork:
The index has broken the upper side of the pitchfork.

Fibonacci:
Price will in first instance probably retrace to the 50% level which is close to the 50-day average.

Support/Resistance:

There is support at 1040 and 1010. There is resistance at 1130.

Indicators:
All indicators turned and are moving up again.

SVE_ARSI (14 periods) indicator:
Moving up.

Slow Stochastic:
Moving up.

SVE_RSI_Swing:
Moving up.

SVAPO:
Moving up.

Volume:
Rather low, vacation?

SVE_BB%b_HA (18 periods):
Moving up.

SVE_Inv_Fish_Stoch:
Up reversal confirmed.

SATS2 Expert:
The SATS2 expert turned green, there is a new open long position. We also have a new manual long position. These trades are shown at the end of the page. Both trades are still open.

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Hourly Chart:

Trading Results:

Manual Trading
Position	Open date	closing date	open price	closing price	profit/ loss	PL perc.
Long	03/13/2009	10/01/2009	756.5	1029.85	273.35	36.0%
Long	10/07/2009	10/29/2009	1057.5	1062.3	4.8	0.4%
Short	04/30/2010	05/21/2010	1200.7	1060	140.7	11.7%
Short	06/22/2010	07/02/2010	1095.3	1022	73.3	6.7%
Long	07/07/2010	OPEN	1034.0
SATS2 Trading
Long	03/13/2009	10/02/2009	756.5	1025.20	268.7	35.0%
Long	10/09/2009	10/28/2009	1071.49	1042.19	-29.3	-2.7%
Long	11/10/2009	01/22/2010	1093	1092	-1	-0.11%
Long	03/02/2010	04/28/2010	1118.3	1191.3	72	6.5%
Long	06/14/2010	06/24/2010	1089.7	1073.7	-16	-1.5%
Long	07/08/2010	OPEN	1070.2

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