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S&P500 Technical Analysis

Please look at all charts, monthly, weekly and daily before making your own conclusion.

Daily Chart

03/06/2010

The 50-days moving average resistance was already broken on monday and tuesday the resistance level at 1115 was broken. Also on tuesday there was a new SATS2 buying signal. A new position is opened at the closing price.

Now the index is coming very close to an important price level. If the index breaks above 1150, we have to review the Elliott count.

You can find the following explanation with the weekly chart. The first possibility is that 1150 is not broken. Then we stay with the scenario of a long term downtrend below 650 with a wave [C] down.

If 1150 is broken, we have a big change. Since a single impulse wave can not be the end of a correction wave, we have the second possibility that we either started a long term up move since the price bottom and we expect then a correction wave 2 of a higher degree followed by a long term wave 3 up move. To good to be true?

However even if 1150 is broken, there is a third possibility. With the wave {5} we finish a medium term correction wave A up and we expect next the medium term correction wave B down, with an index remaining above 650 and most probably higher. So, if the index now moves above 1150, this seems to me the most probable scenario for the near future.

In the daily chart here there is still room for a further up move. There is a good chance that the 1150 level will be broken. Let's wait and see what is going to happen.

The SATS2 expert turned green on tuesday, there is a new open long position.

Most indicators are reaching high levels, but there is room for further up move.

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Elliott wave count:
Wave {C} is complete now with a double zigzag. If this is really the end of wave {C}, then we have also reached the end of the long term big correction wave [B]. We have started the long term [C] wave down with a correction wave and a final target below 666.8. I would still avoid taking any manual long positions for the moment. If price continues the up move for now, there is only limited room for this up move (completing a wave 5) and even in this best scenario there will either be a bigger wave 2 or wave B correction after that.

Pitchfork:
The fictive downward pitchfork in line with previous price angles is broken to the upper side. The index is moving again towards the median line of the long term up moving pitchfork.

Fibonacci:
The index bounced up from the 1045 target. The next up target is 1150.

Support/Resistance:

There is support at 1115-1085-1045-1030-1020. There is resistance is at 1150.

Indicators:
All indicators are moving up.

SVE_ARSI (14 periods) indicator:
Moving up.

Slow Stochastic:
Moving up.

SVE_RSI_Swing:
Moving flat in the overbought level.

SVAPO:
Moving down.

Volume:
Up move supported by steady volume.

SVE_BB%b_HA (18 periods):
Moving up.

SATS2 Expert:
The expert is green. There is an open long positions.

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Hourly Chart:

Trading Results:

Manual Trading
Position	Open date	closing date	open price	closing price	profit/ loss	PL perc.
Long	03/13/2009	10/01/2009	756.5	1029.85	273.35	36%
Long	10/07/2009	10/29/2009	1057.5	1062.3	4.8	0.4%
SATS2 Trading
Long	03/13/2009	10/02/2009	756.5	1025.20	268.7	35%
Long	10/09/2009	10/28/2009	1071.49	1042.19	-29.3	-2.7%
Long	11/10/2009	01/22/2010	1093	1092	-1	-0.11%
Long	03/02/2010		1118.3

January 30, 2010. The SPX long term price target on the weekly chart? 650 by September 2010? The Fibonacci historical projection and the median line of the long term pitchfork are crossing beginning of September. If the move down accelerates at the same speed as the previous long term down move, then there is another pitchfork crossing with the median line that same moment in time.

March 6, 2010. If the 1150 level breaks, we will have to review our January 30 comments here.

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