Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD pair

This page will be updated regularly with up-to-date monthly, weekly and daily charts. You can find HERE a description of the chart template used.

Daily Chart

September 4, 2010: As expected last week, the EUR/USD made a further up correction to the level of the 50 day moving average reaching this level on Friday. There is now resistance from this 50 day moving average, the upper side of the Bollinger band, the upper side of the downward pitchfork, a Fibonacci retracement and the trailing stop level. Looks like a lot of resistance. This seems to be confirmed by the overbought conditions on the hourly chart, most probably finishing an ABC up correction. There is some room in the indicators for a further up move.

I expect a downturn to move toward the median line of the pitchfork. This gives us an idea of the future price direction. Together with the 682% Fibonacci target started from the beginning of the down move, we can estimate a price target of $1.16 beginning of October. There is support around 1.25, 1.21 and 1.19.

Probably we finished the correction wave {B} up and started the last correction wave {C} down with probably a new low point to create the big [C] wave down. We now seem to be finishing correction wave 2 up for corection wave {C} down. That move down would bring the Euro to the level of the previous long term correction wave [4] of the long term up move as you can see in the monthly chart, where price finds support on the 200 months' moving average. We should still not exclude for a 100% the possibility that the Euro is making an impulse wave up, now finishing wave 4 and turning up for wave 5. But for now I prefer the [C] wave down scenario.

Hourly Chart

Weekly Chart

September 4, 2010: The Euro made a long term top Elliott wave [5] around $1.60 July 2008. A correction wave [A] was started, retracing almost 50% of the complete up move. Next the correction wave [B] retraced a big part of the [A] wave with extension correction waves {A} to {C}, completing wave [B]. The move down for wave [C] made already a lower low than wave [A] and with that the wave [C] may already be complete. But, I expect that wave [C] will also have an extension and that we have finished now an intermediate correction wave {B} up. All indicators are turning down and the SATS5 expert function is still black holding a short position. More information about SATS5 HERE.

Monthly Chart

August 31, 2010: The Euro made a long term top Elliott wave [5] around $1.60 July 2008. A correction wave [A] was started, retracing almost 50% of the complete up move. Next the correction wave [B] retraced a big part of the [A] wave, before starting the [C] wave down. Although this [C] wave made already a lower low than wave [A], bouncing up from the 50% retracement level and the 200-month moving average. The question is if the lowest point has been reached already. After an up correction now, we may have an extension of the [C] wave down to the level of correction wave [4] of the long term up move. But we must not exclude that the lowest point has been reached already and that we are starting a new long term up move.

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